2016 Oscar nominations predictions

Just for fun, why not?

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Big Short
  3. The Martian
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road
  5. The Revenant
  6. Carol
  7. Bridge of Spies
  8. Room
  9. Straight Outta Compton
  10. Brooklyn

My assumption is that this, of all years, should be the first to hit 10 nominations given the massive spread of films on offer. But if it caps out at 9 – I’d be surprised if it were lower – Brooklyn is the most likely to miss out.

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson (Room)
  2. Cate Blanchett (Carol)
  3. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
  4. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

Fundamentally, the most important award. #Justice4BlytheDanner

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
  2. Matt Damon (The Martian)
  3. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
  4. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo fuck yourself)
  5. Michael B. Jordan (Creed)

I mean honestly this category is a fucking mess this year

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Rooney Mara (Carol)
  2. Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
  3. Helen Mirren (Trumbo fuck yourself)
  4. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
  5. Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)

Bye, The Danish Girl, hi KStew.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
  2. Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
  3. Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
  4. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
  5. Christian Bale (The Big Short)

Ruffalo could spoil. I feel like Elba would be the most likely to drop in that instance.

Best Director

  1. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
  2. Todd Haynes (Carol)
  3. Adam McKay (The Big Short)
  4. Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)
  5. Ridley Scott (The Martian)

It’s insane that people think Inarritu’s direction of The Revenant is anything but deficient, but here we are. Glad Ridley’s getting his compensatory nomination for The Counselor though. Tipping that McCarthy drops here in favour of the auteurs.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. Ex Machina
  3. Inside Out
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. The Hateful Eight

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Room
  4. Carol
  5. The Martian

Best Cinematography

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. Carol
  4. Sicario
  5. Bridge of Spies

This is actually such a fucking good line-up, reminiscent of the wonderful year where both Inside Llewyn Davis and The Grandmaster  were nominated alongside Deakins and Lubezki (shame about that sickly faux-B&W of Nebraska).

Best Costume Design

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road
  5. Crimson Peak

Best Production Design

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Crimson Peak

Best Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Big Short
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Martian
  5. Bridge of Spies

I feel like Spotlight is only present in most predictions for this category because it’s the Best Picture frontrunner and stats lean so heavily towards pairing Editing noms/wins with BP winners. But I just don’t see it happening.

Best Makeup

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The 100 Year Old Man…

Best Score

  1. Inside Out
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. Carol
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. Bridge of Spies

Really wish Fury Road could get nominated here but I doubt it’ll happen in the face of more traditional scores.

The rest are unremarkable. The one fun thing I’m tipping is Ex Machina for Visual Effects, but we’ll see. And I’m praying for an Amy snub because that is a bad documentary.